Gambling has been quite popular for a very long time, with online betting booming lately. However, sports betting isn’t just a matter of luck but also skill.
Skilful punters have many strategies they use to determine whether a bet will be successful or not. One is to calculate the odds to make more accurate predictions. For example, if a punter wants to bet on whether a team will be covering the spread, they calculate the implied probability and remove the vig to see their actual return on the bet.
Experienced sports bettors will shop around to find the best odds before placing their bet. However, to know which are the best, you first need to calculate the odds to discover the real probability and return.
There are three main types of betting odds: American, Fractional and Decimal. These odds can be freely converted to each other. Fractional odds are presented as two numbers with a forward slash in between. The first number shows the expected times the event fails, while the second number shows the expected times the event succeeds.
To calculate the implied probability, you take the second number and divide it by the total of both numbers. By multiplying it with a hundred, you’ll get a percentage that implies the probability of the event succeeding.
For example, with 10/14 odds, you divide 14 by (10+14), so 14 divided by 24, and multiply by 100. This means the probability of this even happening is 58.33%.
You need to calculate and remove the vigorish, which is the bookmaker’s house edge. To remove the vig, calculate the implied probability percentage of both teams and add them together. The amount of more than 100 is the vig, and some sportsbooks can have more than others.
To remove the vig, you divide each team’s implied probability by their total together to ascertain the vig-less probability of winning. For example, if Team A has a 58.33% chance of winning and Team B a 45.42% chance, you can do the following equations:
Calculating Vigorish: 58.33 + 45.42 = 103.75, with 3.75 being the vig.
So, Team A: 58.33/103.75×100 = 56.22% and Team B: 45.42/103.75×100 = 43.78%.
It is always best to make smart bets using betting math.